We have been hearing about this for a while now, but the jury is finally in: Most economists predict this up cycle will end in 2020.
America may have less than two fat years to make hay while the sun is still shining on the economy.
According to a survey of 60 economists by The Wall Street Journal, 59% of private-sector economists say that the U.S. economy will stop expanding in 2020; 22% said the slowdown would come in 2021 and smaller portions of the sample said the recession could arrive in 2019, 2022 or an unspecified later date.
“The current economic expansion is getting long in the tooth by historical standards, and more late-cycle signs are emerging,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West, who was among those predicting a 2020 recession.
Though a recession is not necessarily imminent, the expansion is almost certainly in its 11th hour, meaning that a recession is absolutely plausible at any point.
“Any year from 2019 onward is in play,” Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, told WSJ.
The most likely cause of the recession according to 62% of these economists is the Federal Reserve’s reining in of an overheating U.S. economy. Other possibilities according to at least 5% of economists were a financial crisis,…