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A number of global economic sectors took a hit in 2018, while the US real estate sector only cooled in certain markets, though it did not crack. The global economy would surely be in trouble if the real estate market became a broad concern. Given this potential for volatility, 2019 will be the most pivotal year in US housing and commercial real estate since the Great Recession. How investors are able to manage through the Opportunity Zone program and its forthcoming guidance from the IRS will be critical to the US housing and commercial real estate market for 2019. Changes To Mortgage Interest Deduction (Negative) American families will receive their W-2s over the next few weeks and prepare their taxes before April 15th. Volatility In Interest Rates (A Toss-Up) There's been a stock market correction within the first year of every new Federal Reserve Chair's tenure in the last 40 years, with the exception of one: Dr. Janet Yellen. However, ten-year treasury rates have dropped from a high of 3.23% in October 2018 to approximately 2.70% last week. Slow-down In Home Price Increases In Coastal Markets (A Toss-Up) The extreme home price increases that have occurred over the last ten years in markets like New York City and San Francisco took a breather in 2018. If consumers become very slow to purchase, a highly motivated seller can drop prices in a knee-jerk reaction. Conditions vary with each economic cycle, but the government shutdown and other economic sectors are already affecting real estate, setting 2019 up to become the most pivotal year the US housing market has seen in the last decade.